Abstract
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Highlights
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods
Added value of this study To our knowledge, this study presents the first estimates of population by location from 1950 to 2017 that are based on transparent data and replicable analytical code, applying a standardised approach to the estimation of population for each single year of age for each calendar year from 1950 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories and for the globe
Our analysis generated a full set of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for each location and year from 1950 to 2017; we used these ASFRs to compute the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest
Summary
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territorie
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