Population and economic development: A counterintuitive relationship for a sustainable world

Abstract

The world population continues to grow, generating a rapid consumption of the earth’s resources that do not have enough time to regenerate. On one side, some economists warn about restricting the population increase that penalizes countries favoring birth control. Conversely, the widespread way of thinking pushing toward galloping demography can be uneconomic. Is the straight correlation between solid demographics and high economic growth correct in a complex and highly nonlinear system? Is the assumption behind the quasi-postulate indicating infinite growth true? This paper attempts to explain the divergent viewpoints regarding the impact of population size on economic development by offering a holistic model instead of a linear cause-and-effect analysis and its variations we find in the majority of works on the subject that neglect the higher-order interactions between various factors, generating approximate, even biased answers due to a legitimate desire to simplify complex phenomena. A systemic model integrating population growth, technology, and economy in a fully endogenous way and in a finite world is proposed, simultaneously highlighting sustainability's role through two main variables, namely “Population” and “Carrying Capacity” of earth. The model tries to find the right balance between those, alarmists, who advocate a soon uncontrolled situation, and others, easygoing, and warn against any drastic form of growth limitation susceptible to plunging billions of people into poverty. It contributes to establishing the conditions for preserving the environment while stimulating the economy in a sustainable manner, with population evolution in the foreground.