Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses

Abstract

Population aging inevitably exerts impacts on socio-economic and environmental systems. However, the relationship between aging and environmental change remains controversial. Using population censuses containing economic and carbon emissions data from 2774 counties in China (2000,2010,2020), we employed the STIRPAT, panel threshold regression, and mediating effect models to investigate the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions. Results showed that the aging of China's population has had a statistically significant impact on carbon emissions, showing an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship in which carbon emissions first increase and decrease with aging, with the aging rate of 3.2% as the inflection point. Since 2000, the aging rate of most counties in China has exceeded this inflection point.The impact of aging on carbon emissions has a double threshold effect, and the thresholds are all located on the right side of the inverted U-shaped curve, which means that aging has already had a restraining effect on carbon emissions. The impact of aging on carbon emissions had obvious regional heterogeneity and varied across regions and provinces. Aging had a greater impact on carbon emissions in underdeveloped regions than in developed regions. Aging reduced carbon emissions by hindering economic growth and promoting upgrades in industrial structures. Given the heterogeneity of aging and its emissions-inhibiting effect, implementing differentiated strategy to address aging and reduce emission may be more effective than a one-size-fits-all approach.