Population Aging in the Canadian Labour Force: Changes and Challenges

Abstract

Canada's post - war labour force growth has been unmatched in any other western industrialized economy, due primarily to the entry of the baby boom generation into the labour force in the 1960s and 1970s. The 1980s, however, have signalled the emergence of new trends, such as a lower source population growth and an aging labour force. Instead of focusing on job creation and the absorption of younger workers, the policy focus must shift to the new challenges precipitated by these trends. New flattened organizational structures driven by demographic (and other) external developments are likely to become more common, shifting the focus from linear to spiral career paths. To be successful much greater emphasis must be placed on adult career development. General skills training will have to be emphasized; work schedules may have to be altered; current early retirement trends may need to reversed. The result can only be achieved by changing management styles and practices. Nulle autre economie industrielle occidentale n'a egale la croissance de la main - d'oeuvre du Canada de l'apres - guerre, phenomene du principalement a l'entree dans l'effectif en ouvriers de la generation de l'apres - guerre durant les annees 1960 et 1970. Quoi qu'il en soit, les annees 1980 ont annonce des tendances nouvelles. Ce qui distingue maintenant le marche du travail au Canada c'est un taux de croissance fort inferieur de la population de la generation de l'apres - guerre et une maind'oeuvre vieillissante, tendances qui se maintiendront vraisemblablement jusqu'a la fin du siecle. Plutot que de mettre l'emphase sur la creation d'emplois et l'absorbtion des jeunes ouvriers, la politique doit dorenavant affronter des defis provenant de ces tendances. On prevoit la mise en oeuvre de plus en plus frequente de structures organisationnelles nouvelles, moins verticales, necessitees par des developpements externes (demographiques et autres) qui privilegieront des carrieres spirales plutot que lineaires. Il faudra mettre l'emphase sur l'apprentissage d'une gamme de techniques. Il faudra peut - etre modifier les horaires. Il faudra peut - etre renverser les tendances actuelles qui encouragent la preretraite. La seule facon de realiser ce but est de modifier le mode et la pratique de la gestion.IntroductionThe challenges faced by Canadian labour markets over the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s have beenphenomenal. Over this entire period, labour force growth in Canada has been unmatched in any other Western industrialized economy. Charles R. Bean, Richard Layard and Stephen Nickell summarize the labour force average growth rates for countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the period 1961 - 84.(f.1) For the decade 1961 - 71, Canada's annual average growth rate of 2.8 percent was matched by only Australia, with New Zealand the only other country with labour force growth in excess of two percent. Labour force growth in Canada increased over the 1970s to annual rates in excess of three percent. This was totally unmatched, the closest countries being the United States and, to a lesser extent, Australia. Even though Canadian labour force growth slowed significantly over the 1980s, it still remained above other OECD countries. This period of unmatched, sustained labour force growth in Canada can be attributed to two complementary forces: a substantial baby - boom generation that entered the labour force over the period, and considerable increases in labour force participation rates, especially by females. These historical factors are documented and discussed in the following section.Not surprisingly, this sustained labour force growth placed upward pressures on unemployment rates in Canada over much of the period. Yet Canada did not experience the highest unemployment rate among OECD countries. For example, Canada's average unemployment rate of 9.4 percent over 1980 - 1983, which included a severe recession, was exceeded by Spain, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark, the Netherlands and Ireland. …