Population Age Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Transportation: A Panel Cointegration Analysis of 21 OECD Countries.

Hyungwoo Lim,Ha-Hyun Jo,Jaehyeok Kim

doi:10.3390/ijerph17217734

Abstract

Using panel data from 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries collected between 2000 and 2016, this study analyzes the effect of age structure on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road transportation. Previous studies have failed to reflect the driver’s behavior patterns, especially by age group. We apply the Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method, including the age structure effect by reorganizing 17 age groups into a polynomial structure. The age structure exhibits an asymmetric inverted U-shaped effect on GHG emissions. Initially, people emit more GHGs as they age, and reach peak emissions in their late 20s, after which emissions fall until around the age of 70, when GHG emissions remain constant because of minimum mobility demand. Factors, such as higher income, increased vehicle ownership, and raised transport volumes increase emission rates. On the other hand, fuel transition and increased fuel price, population density, urbanization rate, and fuel economy reduce GHG emissions. Furthermore, we perform a projection of GHG emissions until 2050, and conclude that the effect of age structure is limited because of the minimum mobility demand of the elderly. We conclude that various policy measures, such as increased fuel economy and urbanization, must be considered in order to achieve sustainable transport

Highlights

In 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and restrict global warming below 2 ◦ C
We apply several unit root tests, which are commonly used for unbalanced panels: Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS), augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP), unbalanced panels: Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS), augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP), and cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) tests [43,44]
We find that population density (PD) and urbanization (UR) reduce emissions emissions significantly, while improvements in fuel economy (FE)

Summary

Introduction

In 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and restrict global warming below 2 ◦ C. Determined Contributions (NDCs), aimed at stemming climate change. Among these contributions, 81% mentioned transportation as a relevant mitigation area, and 60% suggested transport-related mitigation measures [1]. Even though the importance of transportation relative to other polluting sectors is not regularly highlighted, transportation is one of the largest producers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transportation produced 7 Gigaton CO2 equivalent (GtCO2 eq) in 2010, which accounted for almost 23% of all energy-related CO2 emissions [2]. The IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report predicts that, without aggressive mitigation policies, transportation’s CO2 emissions could reach 12 Gt by 2050

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