Popular Nationalism and War

Abstract

Abstract Does nationalism lead to interstate war? This book challenges the widely held assumption that nationalism causes war and systematically investigates how popular nationalism affects a country’s decision to launch military aggression. The book makes a novel and provocative claim that popular nationalism has not only a conflict-inducing effect but also a restraining one, and identifies the conditions under which popular nationalism triggers interstate violence. Specifically, the book asserts that popular nationalism leads to war only when leaders who confront popular nationalism are very confident about their chance of achieving complete victory in conflict or they are politically vulnerable. In the absence of these two conditions, popular nationalism has a restraining effect, pushing leaders toward maintaining the status quo and avoiding the use of force. The book first demonstrates the restraining effect of popular nationalism through a survey experiment conducted in China and an in-depth case study on the territorial dispute between China and Japan in the East China Sea. It then offers comprehensive historical and contemporary analyses of when popular nationalism’s restraining effect can turn into a conflict-inducing one through case studies on the War of 1812 and the Falklands War. The book provides important insights into whether popular nationalism can put great powers like China and the United States on a collision course, as well as broad policy implications for preventing war driven by popular nationalism.