Poptávka po hotovosti v oběhu v České republice v období let 2002-2014 a její změny v průběhu finanční krize

Abstract

The demand for cash in the Czech Republic is characterized since the establishment of the Czech currency in 1993 by a steady upward trend that has been disrupted by several non-standard episodes. One of the episodes was a substantial surge in Czech currency holdings after the outbreak of the financial crisis in late 2008. Results based on a model of currency demand show that the increase in currency in circulation in the last quarter of 2008 cannot be explained by common variables, which include retail sales, interest rate, innovation in payment systems, and tourism. Separate models of currency demand for small and large denominations revealed significant differences in terms of sensitivity to different variables. While small-value banknotes are mainly driven by domestic transactions, payment system innovations and tourism, the demand for large-value banknotes depends more on a short-term interest rate. Increased currency demand had to be explicitly modeled only in case of high-denomination banknotes and was best explained by the confidence indicator.