Política monetária e dinâmica macroeconômica no Brasil: evidências empíricas a partir de Vetores Autorregressivos

Abstract

The article aims at identifying dynamic and interdependent relationships between relevant macroeconomic variables and the monetary policy, in the recent Brazilian economy, through the Vector Autoregressive technique. The work found the following main evidences: (i) a counter-cyclical behavior of the monetary policy as a response to the dynamics of production; (ii) a short-term sensibility of the real exchange rate to fluctuations of activities; (iii) a “J-curve” in the sample period; (iv) adaptive inflationary expectations; (v) short-term effects of the domestic inflation on the real exchange rate; (vi) basic interest rate as an effective instrument to control the consumer inflation index.Key words: monetary policy, macroeconomic dynamics, Brazilian economy.