Polls and Elections: Do the Presidential Primary Debates Matter? Measuring Candidate Speaking Time and Audience Response during the 2012 Primaries

Abstract

Televised presidential primary debates are highly important for partisans by providing unmediated information concerning candidate viability. Here the presumptive winner of a given primary may be indicated during debates through both the speaking time they are given and the audience response they elicit. Here I explore both candidate speaking time and audience laughter and applause by content, analyzing six 2012 Republican Party primary debates. Debate venue plays a significant role in determining applause and, to a lesser extent, laughter. There is also a negative relationship between candidate speaking time and audience laughter, suggesting an insurgent strategy for second‐tier candidates. © 2014 Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress