Pollen curves typology

Abstract

Abstract Aerobiological modelling and pollen forecasting have already been attempted with some success, notably for grasses in Europe, and ragweed in North America. But there has been no proposition for a general model of pollen curve morphology. In this paper, a methodology is suggested that allows a rationalisation of the number of aerobiological model needed to classify pollen curves and thus optimize pollen forecasting. By using descriptive parameters (of central tendency, dispersion, skewness and kurtosis) similarity coefficients were calculated for 13 taxa (chosen for their constancy, representativity and allergenicity). A cluster analysis was then undertaken that allowed the determination of inter- and intra-annual, and inter- and intra-taxonomic ratios. These ratios permit the estimation of “morphological constancy coefficients”. The most constant taxa were ragweed, mugwort, plantain and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae. The similarity of pollen curves allows the clustering of all pollen curves in thr...