Politique de change et exportations de produits manufacturés en Afrique subsaharienne

Abstract

Exchange Rate Management and Manufactured Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa This paper empirically assesses the impact of exchange rate policy on manufactured export performance on a panel of major Sub-Saharan Africa countries over the 1970-1992 period. The impact of exchange rate policy is examined through the effect of three indicators : real effective exchange rate (RER) changes, RER volatility, and (model-based measures of) RER misalignment. Export supply equations are estimated for three manufactured sectors (textile, chemicals, and metals) and two exchange rate regimes : a fixed rates regime represented by six CFA countries and a more flexible rates regime represented by five non-CFA countries. It is shown that exchange rate management matters for export performance. This is evidenced both by the significant impact of changes in the real effective exchange rate and by the negative influence exerted independently by real exchange rate misalignment. On the basis of this evidence we provide estimates of the losses in export shares induced by exchange-rate misalignment. African countries that have been successful in promoting manufactured exports have implemented cautious exchange-rate policies, leading to steadily declining real exchange-rate overvaluation.