Politics in Southeast Asia: A Year of Conflict

Abstract

The most unexpected ? and most ominous ? development in 1978 was the intensity of armed conflict between Vietnam and Kampuchea, and the bitterness of the related dispute between Vietnam and China. Although the hostility and tension between Vietnam and both its small and its powerful neighbour, Kampuchea and China, form a relationship among communist states, it cannot easily be explained in Marxist terms. A better understanding of the roots of conflict, the current form it takes, and its international implications, is provided by traditional concepts in political science and international relations. These concepts, the domestic side, include historical experiences and nation alism (which arises out of those experiences, but is shaped by new social forces resulting from modern political and economic developments). On the external side, these explanatory concepts include geo-politics, balance of power, and (great) politics. To give an idea of the importance of the latter ? and this is a constant theme in international relations ? it is sufficient to note the hierarchy of power which characterizes the present situation. Thus one superpower (the Soviet Union) uses its global political and diplomatic strength (and even the threat of military action in 1969) in an effort to change the policies of its weaker rival, China. China, a big regional power, in turn leans on its smaller adversary, Vietnam. Vietnam, the major military force in Southeast Asia, in turn applies military, political and diplomatic pressure ? using all means short of all-out war ? its small neighbour Kampuchea, a country with about one-sixth the population of Vietnam. Meanwhile the Kampu chean r?gime, which is too vulnerable and crisis-ridden to pose a serious threat to its neighbours, oppresses its own population instead. Using the traditional categories mentioned above ? historical experiences and nationalism, geo-politics and balance of ? I shall analyse, first, the complex relationships between Vietnam and Kampuchea, and then the dispute between Viet nam and China. Although the first is expressed in violent form ? by large scale air and ground warfare along the border region ? it is the second arena of hostility, expressed chiefly in political and economic action, which has the more serious implica tions. This is because hostility between Vietnam and China draws in the Soviet Union much more directly in defence of its ally Vietnam, thus intensifying the Sino-Soviet dispute in Southeast Asia. Further, since the presence of overseas in Vietnam is one of the bones of contention, this raises a difficult problem for China itself: that is, how to protect Chinese minorities in Southeast Asia without at the same time antagonizing non-Chinese Governments. Peking, however, counters by warning against Vietnam s expansionist record over the past centuries in an effort to stimu late distrust of Vietnam among the countries of ASEAN.