Politicized Nominations and Public Attitudes toward the Supreme Court in the Polarization Era

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia provides the opportunity to study the effects of an unexpected Supreme Court vacancy in an era of intense partisan and ideological divisions. Leveraging panel survey data collected shortly before and shortly after Scalia’s passing, as well as an experimental design embedded within a cross-section, I examine how the vacancy differentially impacted attitudes toward the Supreme Court. Unsurprisingly, support begets support, even in a polarized environment. However, exposure to information regarding the legal importance of filling the vacancy, when coupled with exposure to legitimating judicial symbols, positively influences diffuse support; Democratic respondents were particularly susceptible to increases in support. Further, perceptions of how political the Court is decreased as a result of positivity inducing experimental manipulations. Effects do not extend to exposure to information regarding the political importance of filling the vacancy; external actors—such as the president or Congress—do not appear to make the Court appear more political. These results lend support—and provide nuance—to positivity bias, even in the face of intense politicization of the Court by the elected branches.