Politicized ethno-racial shock as group threat: “Refugee crisis” immigration and anti-immigrant voting in Sweden

Abstract

ABSTRACT Far-right politics has gained significant support across Europe in recent decades. Previous literature has investigated the conditions that lead to immigrants being perceived as “threats”, leading to increased support for anti-immigrant parties. However, how certain “shock events” – times of dramatic change – mobilize far-right support around anti-immigrant sentiment has been understudied. Drawing on social movement literature, I examine how support for anti-immigrant politics was driven by demographic change during the “refugee crisis” in Sweden. I use a unique dataset on Swedish municipalities (N = 290) between 2014 and 2018 to examine the relationship between immigration and far-right outcomes. I show that increases in Syrian immigrants during the “refugee crisis” led to significant gains in support for anti-immigrant politics at the municipal level. I suggest that the “refugee crisis” constituted a politicized ethno-racial shock that lead to increases in far-right support, as political actors seized on increased immigration to mobilize around threat perceptions.