Political Versus Technical Risk Deduction and The Failure of U.S. Synthetic Fuel Development Efforts

Abstract

The history of synfuels suggests that sustaining long-term research and development is difficult for a political and bureaucratic system that demands a ready-arsenal of technological quick-fixes. The authors point out that synfuels has become a perennial panacea that never seems to quite pan out. There is a persistent unwillingness to invest in long-term research, while more modest demonstration programs could perfect viable options. After reviewing three major supply interruptions, the authors conclude that if there is likely to be additional short-term supply-related shocks as well as the certainty of mid-term depletion of our liquid and gaseous fuels, then the US must be prepared for the development of a very inefficient synthetic fuels industry. It is important, then, to consider how to reduce technical risk before the demonstration stage. 23 references.