Political risk and financial development in Nigeria: Can credit buy social peace?: Evidence from NARDL approach

Abstract

This study provides a first attempt to analyze the role of credit in the political stability of developing countries. By examining the case of Nigeria using annual data over the period 1984–2017 and the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) approach, we find that credit supply shocks have a significant and non-linear impact on short- and long-term political risk. In terms of asymmetry, we show that positive shocks have a positive and more pronounced impact than negative shocks in the short run, proving that credit expansion can be effective in terms of short-term political stability. In the long run, positive credit shocks increase political risk while negative shocks decrease it. These results suggest that an improvement in Nigeria’s prudential requirements for credit supply could be more effective for political stability than an easing of credit in the long run. In addition, better management of oil revenues, particularly through effective sterilization policies, is essential to prevent oil price fluctuations from leading to a highly pro-cyclical supply of credit, which threatens long-term political stability.