Political Personalities and Voting in the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum

Abstract

This study presents evidence on two questions relating to research into the influence of leadership on mass political behaviour: the impact of leaders on voting in referendums and the influence of non-institutionalised political personalities. Research in Australia demonstrating that voter evaluations of leading politicians affect party choice in national elections has emphasised that in general it is only the current or recent leaders of the major parties who have an impact. Research through the 1990s has also shown that attitudes towards the major party leaders have consistently influenced voter stances on the question of whether Australia should become a republic. In the November 1999 republican referendum, the leaders of the two opposing campaigns – Malcolm Turnbull and Kerry Jones – were not mainstream politicians or party political figures at all. This paper uses data from the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study to investigate the extent to which responses to the leading personalities shaped voting decisions in the referendum and in particular to determine whether voters focused more on the republican and monarchist campaign leaders or on the leaders of the major political parties.