Political Party Realignment in Mexico: Fragmentation, Consolidation, and Party Identification

Abstract

This paper examines the ongoing political party system realignment in Mexico and the implications this holds for electoral outcomes. In particular, the 2009 Congressional Elections are likely to be a predictor of the direction of change for the 2012 General Election, in which the President and Senate are up for election. So, we examine the evolution of the post-reform party system through 2006, apply modeling based on individual party identification, party placement, electoral outcome, and state-level office holding to predict the result of the Congressional elections. This is used to project party consolidation and fragmentation for the 2009 Congressional and 2012 General Elections. For example, a resurgent Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) indicates the potential for a three-party system, yet the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is riven by two ideologically distinct factions and faces the possibility of collapse. The National Action Party (PAN) struggles to capitalize on its holding of the Presidency, and five other parties seek to carve out electoral space in the evolving political environment. What does the 2009 election portend, and what will this hold with regard to the shape of the electorate in 2012?