POLITICAL MOBILIZATION AND VOTER TURNOUT IN THE 1990 MIDTERM ELECTIONS: AN AGGREGATE‐LEVEL ANALYSIS

Abstract

In the following analysis, we utilize district level data on voter turnout to examine the relationship between political mobilization and voter turnout. The analysis improves on previous research in the following three ways: (1) we incorporate a dynamic element into our analysis allowing us to examine differences in turnout across election years; (2) we more closely examine the nonrecursive relationship between the closeness of an election and fluctuations in voter turnout; and (3) we relate our findings to the question of whether or not turnout makes a difference in electoral outcomes. The results indicate that while demographic factors help to explain the level of turnout across congressional districts, differences in turnout across election years are better explained as a function of campaign mobilization and residential mobility. In addition, by taking into account the simultaneity between electoral competitiveness and turnout, we find that turnout is not only stimulated by more competitive elections, but that turnout contributes to electoral competitiveness.