Political instability and stock market returns: Evidence from OECD countries

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between political instability and stock market returns using quarterly time series data from 1993 to 2013. In this paper, stock market returns are defined as the returns of the general stock market index and banking index for 18 OECD countries. Five different political instability indicators are constructed in order to measure political uncertainty. The empirical part utilizes the EFA , PCA and GARCH-M methodologies. The findings indicate a direct and an indirect impact between the PI indicators and the returns of the Banking Index and the Overall Stock Market Index. The research contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence to policy makers on the effects that political instability has on stock markets.