Political Incorporation, Interrupted? The Effects of Loss and Distress Following the 2016 U.S. Elections on the Civic Attitudes and Involvement of Latino Immigrants

Abstract

The wellbeing of democracy depends on “losers’ consent,” i.e., unsuccessful electoral coalitions accepting defeat. Yet for some, disappointing losses after an election and ensuing distress under the new administration may lead to an erosion of political trust, efficacy, and engagement in public affairs. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 posed such a possibility for Latino immigrants, given Trump’s combative anti-immigrant stances. Drawing from a three-wave panel survey of foreign-born Latinos, this “civic erosion” hypothesis is examined. Results indicate that post-election losses and worries about the wellbeing of friends and family led to a decline in political trust and efficacy. However, there was no corresponding drop in interpersonal trust; nor did these concerns prompt immigrants to consider leaving the U.S. Furthermore, immigrants who backed an unsuccessful presidential candidate or were worried about risks to family members and friends under the Trump administration were significantly more likely to take part in marches and demonstrations. Such resilience and engagement bode well for the continued incorporation of immigrants into American civic life.