Political Ideology: Cause or Consequence of One's Vote? Evidence from Multiple Countries

Abstract

This paper addresses voting decisions and their rationalization ex post. It uses survey data from seven different general elections in Germany, New Zealand, the Netherlands and Israel. Results uncover the following patterns: all voters place themselves very close in ideological terms to the party they vote for. Once we control for education, we find that less educated voters place themselves systematically close to the party they vote for, regardless of how far they are from it objectively. This suggests that some voters may suffer from cognitive dissonance once the voting decision is made, and overcome it by adjusting their own position with respect to the party position. Panel data from New Zealand further suggests that loyal voters of a party also tend to perceive themselves ideologically much closer to that party than what they really are, regardless of their education levels. Furthermore, it shows that they minimize ideological distance by placing themselves in the ideological position of their chosen party, instead of choosing to believe that the party holds their own views. Finally, this paper proposes a decision making model that accounts for these patterns, and discusses the medium and long run implications that this kind of behavior may have regarding the polarization of voters in a country.