Political governance, socioeconomics, and weather influence provincial GHG emissions in Canada

Abstract

Quantifying the effects of political, socioeconomic, and weather factors on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital for successful climate change mitigation and adaptation. We modeled these effects on provincial per-capita GHG emissions across Canada from 1990 to 2019. The results showed the percentage of variation in GHG emissions explained by the models ranged from 75.3% to 98.8% across the ten Canadian provinces. Socioeconomics was associated with most of the emission variation (46.1%), followed by weather (1.4%). The effect of political governance on GHG emissions was minor (0.7%) and inconsistent but had a strong interaction with socioeconomic factors. Energy use efficiency was identified to be the most influential factor, contributing to lowering emissions in eight provinces. We conclude that socioeconomic factors are most important in causing GHG emissions across Canada, while the importance of political governance is trivial, much to the chagrin of those making election promises. Investment in energy efficient technologies should have the highest return in reducing emissions.