Political event analysis using group support systems

Abstract

Corporate and public sector managers often look to futurists for help in forecasting changes in their internal and external organizational environments. Futurists use techniques such as the Delphi method and scenario development to identify possible futures, often consisting of events and trends, occurring both globally and within a specific geographical region. As corporations expand into global markets, they become vulnerable to political events occurring in specific regions such as expropriation of assets, the imposition of currency controls, and targeted taxation. In analyzing the risk associated with these events, it is often useful to call on the opinions and judgments of knowledgeable persons closest to the events. Yet some of these persons may be reluctant to discuss their opinions openly. Therefore, it may be helpful to allow them to discuss issues among themselves under conditions of mutual anonymity. Group support systems (GSS) allow groups to conduct such discussions. We present a two-part methodology for analyzing political events using GSS, one to be used for an initial analysis and the other for a follow-up comparison. We then demonstrate our methodology by applying it to Hong Kong (1) before its reunification with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and (2) after the reunification.