Political economy of low-carbon electricity: Governance effects across 198 countries

Abstract

Which countries best foster low-carbon electricity transitions – authoritarian regimes or democratic societies? Crucial for understanding how transitions unfold is identifying contextual factors conditioning propensity to adopt specific forms of energy production. This research assesses the relationship between quality of governance within 198 countries and domestic electricity production from all major energy sources, across the years 2002–2020. Governance quality is measured via a range of comprehensive, internationally recognised metrics, focusing predominantly on the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators. The data reveal that a future, decarbonised electricity system via wind, solar, and/or nuclear appears most likely in countries where the traditions and institutions by which authority is exercised support good governance. Over the last two decades, the association between electricity from solar and wind and good governance has progressively strengthened globally. Beyond governance, national measures of economic (in)equality are strongly related to electricity production from nuclear and hydropower. These findings offer a point of departure for assessing how governance systems might predispose countries to particular energy choices.