Political Developments in the Post-Deng Era and their Impact on China's Relations with Taiwan and Hong Kong

Abstract

Abstract Indicators suggest that the post-Deng era and the associated leadership succession process have already begun. While the probability of chaos and the splitting up of the country after Deng is not high, control in the ideological arena will likely be tightened. After his electoral victory Lee Teng-hui will initiate measures to improve relations with Beijing and to reduce tension across the Taiwan Strait, leading to direct mail, trade and transport. But Lee will not give up his pragmatic diplomacy which will further provoke Beijing. The Chinese leadership's major difficulty is that it has upped the ante a number of times, and has no results to show to facilitate its climb down the ladder of escalation. With the approach of 1997, the Chinese authorities' influence on Hong Kong has become increasingly significant. The community reluctantly accepts the lack of consultation. About 1.2 million people, however, have the opportunity to emigrate and they adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Meanwhile, economic integration between the territory and southern China has made much progress.