Political cycle in graduation rates

Abstract

We show that exam success rates in Sub-Saharan Africa increase significantly in the months prior to national elections. Using a sample of more than 35 African countries, the study seeks to demonstrate that higher graduation rates prior to major national elections arise because of government manipulation. Evidence from a variety of robustness checks—controlling for observables, focussing on strictly exogenous elections, regression discontinuity estimates—confirms the central hypothesis: public officials deliberately relax graduation requirements to increase popular support for the incumbent in the months prior to national elections. We find that this result is stronger in a context of competitive elections. However, the results also show that good governance dampens the political cycle in graduation rates.