Abstract
The present paper provides a meta-study of security and defence foresight documents by the Atlantic Alliance, European Union and various official bodies linked to the Defence Ministries of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and United States. It focuses on the political and social trends impacting on defence and military issues. In global terms, the following can be discerned: rivalry among major powers, with armed conflict between some not ruled out entirely; armed non-state actors strengthened by new technologies; global competition for natural resources; extensive demographic imbalances and migration flows; global risks associated with fragile states. In terms of European internal policy, the following trends are identified: population ageing and the challenges associated with immigrant integration; empowerment of interest-based and identity networks. The paper begins by familiarising readers with the characteristics of foresight documents and the methodologies used in their preparation.
Highlights
The perception exists that we are living through times of confusion and raid change
The Atlantic Alliance, European Union and a variety of bodies affiliated to the Defence ministries of the main countries in North America and Europe in terms of gross defence spending
The present paper aims to offer an overview of the results of the aforementioned works, providing insight into the major trends which, according to these official documents, will shape global relations, politics and society during the second third of the twenty-first century
Summary
The perception exists that we are living through times of confusion and raid change. the Arab uprisings of 2011, the territorial gains of the Islamic Caliphate in Syria and Iraq in 2014, Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential elections in 2016 are all developments with immense significance that could scarcely have been anticipated at the turn of the decade [1, 2]. In order to narrow the scope of the present work, it was decided to focus on foresight documents of a public nature drawn up between 2007 and 2017 by official defence and security bodies within the so-called Euro-Atlantic Area (North America and Western Europe). This delimitation allows us to gain a perspective –in many respects common within said area– concerning the trends that will determine the future of global security.
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