Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

W J Wouter Botzen,Howard Kunreuther,Jeroen C J H Aerts,Hans De Moel,Erwann Michel-Kerjan

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1735-9

Abstract

Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6 months after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 of over 1,000 residents in flood-prone areas in New York City. Democrats’ perception of their probability of suffering flood damage is significantly higher than Republicans’ and they are also more likely to invest in individual flood protection measures. However, 50% more Democrats than Republicans in our sample expect to receive federal disaster relief after a major flood. These results highlight the importance of taking into account value-based considerations in designing disaster risk management policies.

Highlights

Many regions around the globe struggle with limiting the expected increase in natural disaster losses due to climate change and growth in exposure (IPCC 2012)
Political affiliation was determined by the political party the respondent had voted for during the last Presidential election (November 2012): 40 % voted for the Democratic Party, 26 % voted for the Republican Party, 6 % voted as Independents, and the remainder did not answer
51 % of those who voted for the Democratic Party think that their flood probability is higher than 1-in100 compared to only 41 % of people who voted for the Republican Party

Summary

Introduction

Many regions around the globe struggle with limiting the expected increase in natural disaster losses due to climate change and growth in exposure (IPCC 2012). Climatic Change (2016) 138:353–360 residents in hazard-prone areas to undertake protective actions is key. We show that political affiliation, measured as political party identification, is significant in the context of flood risk. Our study is based on a survey of over 1000 residents in flood-prone areas of New York City (NYC). NYC and its surrounding area was directly affected by Hurricane Irene in 2011, and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 (which triggered $50 billion in federal disaster relief). These events made improving flood preparedness a priority for NYC, where action taken at the household level is an important element

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Conclusion