POLISH AGRI-FOOD TRADE WITH NON-EU COUNTRIES – A GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The main aim of the article was to indicate the influence of selected determinants of Poland’s agri-food export to countries outside the European Union. Although European Union countries have been the Poland’s main trading partners for years, the share of third countries in total Polish trade has gradually been increasing. In the case of Polish agri-food trade, a different tendency is observed, as the importance of non-EU countries is decreasing. In the analysis, covering the years 2000-2016, the gravity model was used. The dependent variable was Poland’s agri-food export to third countries, while independent variables included GDP, the geographical distance between partners, differences of GDP per capita of exporter and importer, agricultural value added, the preferential trade agreement and variable describing whether a given country was a post-socialist country. Research confirmed that the masses of economies expressed in GDP attract trade between countries, while the distance between partners limits it. A positive impact on Polish agri-food exports was observed for agricultural value added and more liberal trade regulations between partners, which were a result of preferential trade agreements between the European Union and selected third countries. On the other hand, historical conditions related to the fact that the country was in the group of socialist countries with economies undergoing a transformation process since the 1990s have limited Polish agri-food exports.