Policy Uncertainty and Saving Attitude: Evidence from a Survey on Consumers

Abstract

Uncertainty over the social security and tax system is often pointed out as a source of stagnant household consumption at the aggregate level. This study presents empirical evidence on this issue by using original survey data of Japanese individuals. The results indicate that individuals are highly uncertain over the future course of social security and tax policies. The policy uncertainty is associated with an orientation toward saving, and the relationship is stronger for low‐income individuals. These results suggest that improving long‐term predictability in the social security and tax system may contribute to weakening households' saving orientation.