Policy measures and their impact on transport performance, modal split and greenhouse gas emissions in German long-distance passenger transport

Abstract

In our study, we used a system dynamics model to analyze how frequently discussed transport policy measures affect the total transport performance of long-distance passenger transport in Germany and the transport performance of relevant modes (modal split shares). We then combined the results with established data on mode-specific greenhouse gas emissions to ultimately determine the climate protection effects of the measures.Our analysis shows that an actual modal shift from road to rail will only occur if the price competitiveness and supply conditions of long-distance rail passenger transport are significantly improved. Scenarios for increasing the price of passenger car traffic via a passenger car toll on trunk roads or an additional CO2-based tax on fuels increase the market share of rail, but limit overall transport performance growth compared to our reference scenario with no measures. A doubling of long-distance passenger rail transport cannot be achieved with any of the measures or bundles of measures examined, neither in terms of transport performance nor modal split share. According to our calculations, only the “car repression” scenario makes a noticeable contribution to reducing CO2 emissions. German government's ambitious climate targets for 2030 can only be reached if the climate footprint of vehicles – especially passenger cars – is significantly improved. It is also noteworthy that, according to our analysis, a politically frequently demanded ban on domestic flights would ultimately even lead to an increase in CO2 emissions, since, among other things, general travel costs would fall.