Policy implications of the disruptive impact of China’s slowdown on commodity trade with the developing world

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe economic relations between China and mineral-rich developing countries have revolved around the mineral resources of these countries. Hence, China’s recent rapid economic growth has had positive disruptive impacts on these developing States. Conversely, the more recent downturn in China’s economy has had negative disruptive effects on these developing States. By assessing the value of mineral product exports from South Africa (SA) to China from 2004 till recent years, this paper demonstrates that the decline in China’s economic growth has not been advantageous to mineral-rich developing States. Based on the findings of the spillover effects of this decline in South Africa’s mineral export value to China, this paper aims to instigate the policy-makers of these developing States (including SA) to see the need for their current policies to be re-assessed. This re-assessment is necessary to determine whether their policies are capable of enabling their economies to handle disruptive changes that can occur in their trade relations with a superpower like China. The result should be restructuring their policies so they would have buffers for changes in global mineral prices and demand, as well as enable these developing economies to be better prepared to enter more beneficial engagements with China when her economy grows stronger again.