Policy impacts estimates are sensitive to data selection in empirical analysis: evidence from the United States – Canada softwood lumber trade dispute

Abstract

In this paper, we use the U.S. softwood lumber import demand model as a case study to show that the effects of past trade policies are sensitive to the data sample used in empirical analyses. We conclude that, to be consistent with the purpose of analysis of policy and to ensure all else being equal, policy impacts can only be judged by using data up to the time when the policy is terminated.