Policy coherence in the Nordic bioeconomy? A novel set‐theoretic approach to studying relations among policy goals

Abstract

AbstractThe green transition requires a reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels, and new innovations suggest that refined biomass can replace fossils within many different industries. In recent years, policy‐makers have therefore framed the bioeconomy as a stepping‐stone for realizing social, economic and environmental objectives in the green transition. However, the policy coherence literature faces a key challenge for analyzing whether these policy goals are indeed compatible: few methods offer a systematic approach for detecting interdependencies and interactions among three (or more) policy goals. The present paper addresses this methodological challenge by proposing a novel set‐theoretic approach, theAlternating Necessity Test, for identifying whether policies are incoherent, weakly coherent, or strongly coherent. The present paper applies this approach to the Nordic bioeconomy context, findings the Nordic bioeconomy strategy to be weakly coherent. This suggests that the Nordic countries can replace fossil fuels with refined biomass without encountering trade‐offs among social, economic and environmental policy goals, but also without experiencing any synergies. Demonstrating how policy coherence and goal compatibility can be conceptualized in set‐theoretic terms, this paper offers a novel tool for identifying those situations in which policy‐makers should focus not only on overcoming incoherence, but on progressing from weak to strong policy coherence.