Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable

Abstract

• The UN broadband commission is targeting universal broadband of 10 Mbps by 2030. • This paper evaluates if this is actually feasible, considering viability and affordability. • Deployment of 5G non-standalone costs USD 2 trillion (0.67% of annual GDP for the developing world). • A favorable regulatory environment can reduce this cost by almost half, avoiding public subsidy. • Governments must adopt fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering broadband costs. • If so, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade. The UN Broadband Commission has committed to universal broadband by 2030. But can this objective really be affordably delivered? The aim of this paper is to assess universal broadband viability in the developing world, quantifying the relationship between demand-side revenue and supply-side cost. A comprehensive scenario-based simulation model is developed open-source, capable of evaluating the global cost-effectiveness of different 4G and 5G infrastructure strategies. Utilizing remote sensing and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight representative Low and Middle-Income Countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru and Mexico), the results from which form the basis for global aggregation via a new assessment framework. The cost of meeting a minimum ∼10 Mbps per user is estimated at USD 2 trillion using 5G Non-Standalone, approximately 0.67% of annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by almost half – to USD 1.2 trillion (approximately 0.41% of annual GDP) – and avoid the need for public subsidy. Providing governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade.