Policy and political perceptions of risk: the challenges to building resilient energy systems.

Abstract

Decisions relating to energy systems resilience must take into account a range of environmental and societal transitions together with an array of future threats. These must be assessed broadly and systematically but also must consider how risks and vulnerabilities are linked, and that small events can cascade across a system and between systems to escalate into large-scale collapse. Developing resilience involves not only identifying such threats and potential points of failure but acting upon them with an appropriate level of future planning. Decision-making in complex systems is often affected by cognitive biases and runs into contestation and obstacles of politics, policy complexities and differing views of potential futures. This paper discusses the challenges to building resilient systems for the future, given the inevitable biases and differing risk perspectives of decision-makers at all levels that often confound expert analysis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Developing resilient energy systems'.