Policies for establishing hybrid poplar plantations on private and public lands in western Canada for bioethanol feedstock: a forest-level financial analysis

Abstract

A forest-level model is developed that estimates how policies towards hybrid poplar plantations on private and public land impact harvest levels and values for producing biofuel feedstock. We simulate three policy changes: (i) permitting an increase in harvest levels on public land as a result of establishing hybrid poplar plantations on private land; (ii) permitting the establishment of hybrid poplar plantations on public land; and (iii) including forest carbon emission offsets in the net benefits realized by the forest operator. We are interested in whether the increase in harvest created by the policies might be enough to supply a biorefinery, and how the value of the operation changes. Our results suggest that jointly managing public and private lands under sustained yield can increase harvest by between 7% and 93%, and increase the value of the operation by between 39% and 263%. Results also suggest that hybrid poplar plantations could enable a leaseholder of one million hectares of public forestland to initiate an allowable cut effect and thereby increase harvest enough to supply a new biorefinery, in addition to its existing pulp mill. Carbon offsets further increase the value of the forest, although harvest begins to decline at high carbon prices.