Abstract
This article investigates the contours of inequality in the context of institutional decline and polarization in educational attainment. Using household survey data collected in 2005–2006 by UNICEF, we conduct synthetic cohort analyses estimating the likelihood of transitioning to secondary and higher education for men and women; urban and rural residents; poor and wealthy; and ethnic majority and minority citizens. Overall, gender and ethnic differences appear to contribute most to the polarization, although poverty and rural residence play a role in some contexts.
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