Polarization, casualty sensitivity, and military operations: evidence from a survey experiment

Abstract

Does political polarization impact decisions to go to war? This paper explores how differences in casualty sensitivity by political party in the USA may present different incentives to wartime leaders. Using three survey experiments, I assess the relationship between party, ideology, casualty sensitivity and support for war. Results indicate that conservatives are less likely to change their support in response to increases in casualties, while liberals are much more likely to be sensitive to casualties. Further, this result appears to be primarily attributable to ideology, as opposed to partisan preference, generating different incentives regarding war strategy by political party. As polarization increases, these trends are likely to become more pronounced, with significant implications for when and how states fight wars.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41311-022-00378-9.