Polarisation or Jobless Growth? Structural Changes and Employment Trends in the Indian Labour Market: Evidence from the National Sample Survey

Abstract

Using the Indian National Sample Surveys and Participatory Labour Force Survey this paper presents a descriptive analysis of the role of education, occupation, wages and intersectoral movement of labour on the evolving demand for skills over the period of 1999-00 to 2017-18. First, the paper examines whether the increase in share of high-skill and low-skill workers is seen alongside a consequent decline in the middle-skilled workers. Second, if this change has had any unfavourable consequences on the low-skilled workers. Although an increase in demand for both high- and low-skill workers is observed, such an increase in the informal sector is largely attributed to self-employed workers. The proportion of middle-skill occupations have remained consistent for urban areas while reduced considerably for rural areas and the supply of workers with middle and secondary education are large and have remained so. A clear distress in agriculture is seen. While income security schemes and regulation of the informal workforce may reduce the social cost of increasing job polarisation, a deeper problem of skill shortage requires conscious handling.