Abstract
AbstractSpace weather can cause serious disturbances of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) used for positioning and navigation purposes. This paper describes a new method to forecast space weather disturbances on GNSS at high latitudes, in which we describe the formation and propagation of polar cap patches and predict their arrival at the nightside auroral oval. The space weather prediction model builds on the expanding/contracting polar cap (ECPC) paradigm and total electron content (TEC) observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) network. The input parameter is satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field at the first Lagrange point. To validate our prediction model, we perform a case study in which we compare the results from our prediction model to observations from the GPS TEC data from the MIT's Madrigal database, convection data from Super Dual Auroral radar network, and scintillation data from Svalbard. Our results show that the ECPC paradigm describes the polar cap patch motion well and can be used to predict scintillations of GPS signals at high latitudes.
Highlights
Space weather refers to a variety of phenomena that originate from the sun and affect the Earth's magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere
To validate our prediction model, we perform a case study in which we compare the results from our prediction model to observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) data from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)'s Madrigal database, convection data from Super Dual Auroral radar network, and scintillation data from Svalbard
Our results show that the expanding/contracting polar cap (ECPC) paradigm describes the polar cap patch motion well and can be used to predict scintillations of GPS signals at high latitudes
Summary
Space weather refers to a variety of phenomena that originate from the sun and affect the Earth's magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere. Space weather can have adverse effects on human technology, such as power grid failure, radiation, damage of near-earth satellites, and disturbances of communication and satellite positioning and navigation systems. Modern technology relies increasingly upon satellite communication, used for example in positioning and navigation systems. For satellite communication and navigation systems, space weather is an important field of study. Understanding the underlying drivers for space weather effects, and predicting space weather events, is an important step forward. Scintillations degrade position accuracy and can cause loss of lock (Aarons, 1982; Garner et al, 2011; Jacobsen & Andalsvik, 2016; Jin & Oksavik, 2018)
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