Abstract
One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.
Highlights
The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [1] in December 2015 proposed an aspirational goal to stabilize the mean air temperature to well below 2 ◦C and limited to 1.5 ◦C above the pre-industrial levels through sustained efforts [1]
We suggest that significant changes in the seasonal cycle of sea ice will occur
According to [37], the heat absorbed during the boreal summer as a result of sea ice shrinkage will be released during the boreal autumn, contributing to an increase in air temperatures
Summary
The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [1] in December 2015 proposed an aspirational goal to stabilize the mean air temperature to well below 2 ◦C and limited to 1.5 ◦C above the pre-industrial levels through sustained efforts [1]. Different conclusions have been drawn to explain the coupled mechanism involved in the process, the ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and whether the poleward, atmospheric heat transport may be a key mechanism to understand polar warming [12,14,15]. Most of these studies use numerical climate simulations with radiative forcing of greenhouse gases (GHG) as the main tool [10,12,15]. The understanding of the physical coupled processes underlying the PA plays a key role to offer confidence and for constraining model projections of Arctic and Antarctic climate change
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