Poisson approximation for the number of visits to balls in non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems

Abstract

AbstractWe study the number of visits to balls Br(x), up to time t/μ(Br(x)), for a class of non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems, where μ is the Sinai–Ruelle–Bowen measure. Outside a set of ‘bad’ centers x, we prove that this number is approximately Poissonnian with a controlled error term. In particular, when r→0, we get convergence to the Poisson law for a set of centers of μ-measure one. Our theorem applies for instance to the Hénon attractor and, more generally, to systems modelled by a Young tower whose return-time function has an exponential tail and with one-dimensional unstable manifolds. Along the way, we prove an abstract Poisson approximation result of independent interest.