Pointwise Modelling and Prediction for Ground Surface Uplifts in Abandoned Coal Mines from InSAR Observations

Abstract

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is a useful tool for monitoring surface uplifts due to groundwater rebound in abandoned coal mines. However, InSAR-based prediction for surface uplifts has rarely been focused on so far, hindering the scientifical assessment and controlling of uplift-related geohazards in a wide area. In this study, we firstly revealed that the temporal evolution of surface uplifts caused by groundwater rebound at a surface point approximately followed an exponential distribution. Following the result, a varied cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the Weibull distribution was then used to model the temporal evolution of surface uplifts on a point-by-point basis. Finally, the parameters of the varied Weibull CDF were inverted from historical InSAR observations of surface uplifts and were forward used to predict uplift trends. Two abandoned coal mines in Beipiao city, China, were chosen to test the presented method. The results suggest that the varied Weibull CDF is able to well describe the processing of time-series uplifts, and the root mean square errors of the predicted uplifts were about 1.2 mm. The presented pointwise method predicts surface uplifts based on historical uplift observations and a mathematical function (i.e., the varied Weibull CDF), without the requirement of in situ geological and hydrological information about the focused abandoned coal mines. Therefore, it offers a new tool for predicting surface uplifts in abandoned mines, especially in case they lack in situ geological and hydrological information.