Point-Counterpoint: The Hope-Simpson Hypothesis and Its Implications Regarding an Effect of Routine Varicella Vaccination on Herpes Zoster Incidence.

Abstract

Some 50 years ago, Edgar Hope-Simpson published his hypothesis regarding the interactions between varicella and herpes zoster. As part of this hypothesis, Hope-Simpson postulated that reactivation of varicella zoster virus (VZV) was under immunological control, and that this immunological control could be boosted "endogenously" due to reactivation of latent VZV, and "exogenously" due to exposure to varicella. This hypothesis has important policy implications and remains a source of debate today; namely, does reducing VZV circulation through effective pediatric varicella vaccination programs lead to unintended increases in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence? This article provides 2 very different perspectives on this issue. The first perspective (Rafael Harpaz: Evidence Against an Effect) highlights the empiric experience of the United States, with its population of >300 million, a highly effective national varicella vaccination program lasting >20 years, and with several credible sources of data regarding HZ incidence. The US data have shown an increase in HZ incidence that preceded the availability of varicella vaccination by decades; indeed, HZ rates appear to have plateaued among older adults since varicella vaccination was introduced. Furthermore, HZ rates are not different in states having higher vs lower preschool varicella vaccination rates. The second perspective (Albert J. van Hoek: Evidence for an Effect) cites data that persons with close exposure to children appear to be at lower risk of HZ before universal VZV vaccination, but not so thereafter. Due to historic demographic changes, exogenous boosting could play a role in explaining the observed increase in HZ before varicella vaccination. Thus, it might be difficult to separate declines in exogenous boosting due to demographic changes from those caused by the varicella vaccination program. Additional data will be needed to conclusively rule out an impact of varicella vaccination on HZ.