Abstract
Executive Summary. Global capital markets in 2008experienced historic illiquidity, with nearly every majorcountry's central banking system having to infuse capitaldirectly into their member banks. These dramatic stepswere taken to help keep banks solvent while they continuedto absorb massive losses related to business, insurance,and real estate debt. This paper estimates the sizeof the commercial real estate debt financing needed in2009 and beyond. The paper also seeks to further expandand update evolving investment possibilities, given thestatus of the capital markets in the United States in 2009and the increasing and unprecedented high demand andlow supply of debt available for the financing and refinancingof commercial real estate properties. By lookingat the ten-year historic trends of existing commercialdebt demand and supply, a forecast of future debt demandand supply shortfall through 2018 is developed.Then the potential impact on commercial mortgage pricingis discussed.
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