Abstract
Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of the Human Fertility Database (2011), the paper compares the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (Comput Stat Data Anal 51(10), 4942–4956, 2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.
Highlights
Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for allocation of current and future resources to fertility control programmes and child care services
Thanks to the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), this paper aims to contribute to the demographic literature by providing a forecast accuracy comparison of some functional principal component methods
We shall summarize the main points: 1) Model uncertainty should be considered as a criterion for finding the best model
Summary
Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for allocation of current and future resources to fertility control programmes and child care services. There has been a surge of interest in forecasting fertility rate in recent years, mainly driven by the need for accurate forecasts to inform government policy and planning. Such an interest is reflected by many contributions in the 1st Human Fertility Database Symposium in 2011. When a demographer is asked to forecast age-specific fertility rates, an obvious question is that which method gives the best accuracy of the point and interval forecasts. Thanks to the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), this paper aims to contribute to the demographic literature by providing a forecast accuracy comparison of some functional principal component methods. We reveal the methods that produce the most accurate point and interval forecasts for the age-specific fertility rates
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
