Abstract
Reliability prediction is widely used in industry for estimating field-reliability of a system before empirical data are available for the system. The two branches of reliability prediction, statistical based method and physics-of-failure based method are adopted in different industry sectors to make full use of their different merits. However, for power converters in electric drive system, the operation conditions of devices change severely and rapidly due to the harsh environment and fast-changing load. The adverse conditions are not well modelled by the statistical based method. Recently, the Physics-of-Failure (PoF) method which models failure mechanism of component draws lots of attention in research of power electronics reliability. This paper evaluate reliability of a power converter in electric drive system with PoF analysis of IGBT. A fast-changing operation profile is defined to mimic real operation of a high power converter in electric drive system. The electro-thermal simulation of a 6.7MW power converter is conducted to obtain the thermal stresses on IGBT and DC-link Capacitor. The PoF analysis results show that load variation rather than the heavy load consumes most the lifetime of IGBT. It is suggested that thermal stress smoothing method is a cost-effective way to improve the system lifetime.
Published Version
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