PND129 BAD WEATHER CAUSES MIGRAINE? ASSOCIATION BETWEEN METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES, HEADACHES AND MIGRAINE USING GERMAN CLAIMS DATA

Abstract

While most patients perceive weather as triggering headache and migraine, research has reported mixed findings. We assessed the association of weather with migraine and headache hospitalizations using German claims data. Headache and migraine hospitalizations between 01/01/2013 and 30/06/2018 were included from German health claims in Saxony and Thuringia. Daily data on the mean temperature, precipitation height, barometric pressure, and relative humidity were collected from 21 meteorological stations covering the two regions. Multivariate zero-inflated negative-binomial regressions modelled the association between meteorological variables and daily counts of hospitalizations by gender, age category (18-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75+), and diagnosis (headache or migraine). Fixed effects for gender, age, diagnosis, season, and year accounted for unobservable factors, seasonality and time trends. Models augmented with interactions of weather variables with gender, age, and diagnosis tested for differential effects between subgroups. Between 01/01/2013 and 30/06/2018, 11,984 hospitalizations had a main diagnosis of migraine (5,242) or headache (6,742). A lagged effect of weather on next-day hospitalization incidence was found. A 5C° increase in mean daily temperature was associated with a 2.7% lower incidence (p=0.020). Moreover, one standard deviation increase in barometric pressure (8 hPa) was associated with a 2.1% lower incidence (p=0.044). Lastly, an increase in relative humidity by 10 percentage points (pp) was associated with a 3.4% higher incidence. In interacted models, a 5C° temperature increase was associated with a 5.2% lower incidence only for patients age 18-44 (p<0.001). An 8 hPa increase in pressure was linked to 5.9% (p=0.023) and 9.1% (p=0.040) lower incidence among patients age 44-54 and 64-74, respectively. Lastly, a 10 pp increase in humidity was associated with a 3.9% lower incidence for females (p=0.002). The association between weather and next-day headache and migraine hospitalizations supports patients’ perception of weather sensitivity and endorses the adoption of preventive strategies.